Scoring Patterns and Match Statistics

Beyond the final score, there are rich patterns in how and when goals are scored. Do teams score more in the first half or second half? Are there specific time periods where goals cluster? Which teams start games well but collapse late? This lesson analyses scoring patterns, match tempo, and statistical distributions across the dataset.

Understanding these patterns is useful for match prediction, game planning, and identifying structural strengths and weaknesses in a team.

Home Advantage Quantification

Home advantage is well-documented across sports. Teams playing at home win more often, score more goals, and concede fewer. But by how much? SQL lets us measure this precisely rather than assume.

This query computes home and away win rates, goal averages, and the size of the home advantage for the entire dataset.

WITH match_stats AS (
    SELECT
        home_goals, away_goals,
        CASE WHEN home_goals > away_goals THEN 'home_win'
             WHEN home_goals < away_goals THEN 'away_win'
             ELSE 'draw' END AS result
    FROM matches WHERE competition = 'league'
)
SELECT
    COUNT(*) AS total_matches,
    SUM(CASE WHEN result = 'home_win' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS home_wins,
    SUM(CASE WHEN result = 'draw' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS draws,
    SUM(CASE WHEN result = 'away_win' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS away_wins,
    ROUND(AVG(home_goals), 2) AS avg_home_goals,
    ROUND(AVG(away_goals), 2) AS avg_away_goals,
    ROUND(AVG(home_goals - away_goals), 2) AS avg_home_advantage,
    ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN result = 'home_win' THEN 1.0 ELSE 0 END) / COUNT(*) * 100, 1) AS home_win_pct,
    ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN result = 'away_win' THEN 1.0 ELSE 0 END) / COUNT(*) * 100, 1) AS away_win_pct
FROM match_stats;

What This Returns

In most football leagues, home win percentages run between 42-48%, away wins 25-30%, with the remainder draws. If your data shows a home win rate significantly above 50%, it suggests a strong home advantage effect in that league or dataset. avg_home_advantage is the average goal difference in favour of the home team — typically around +0.3 to +0.6 in top leagues.